The hottest PX paraxylene market is expected to re

PX (p-xylene) market is expected to return to strength

recently, Japan's shinriko and Chuguang finalized the settlement price of PX (p-xylene) Asian contract goods in July at US $1410 (ton price, the same below), Compared with 1 in previous months "Putting artificial materials into the human body amounted to $400, a slight increase of $10. This may be a harbinger of the return of the PX market to strength. In the first half of the year, PX prices remained weak, and it was once suspected that the PX industry, which was profitable in previous years, would fall into a development cycle. However, from the perspective of medium - and long-term development, PX production is still attractive enough. The current weak pattern of the PX market is the short-term result of the industrial chain game.

historical capacity data show that in 2009 Up to now, the surplus monetary environment has led to the rapid development of fixed asset investment, in which the chemical fiber industry has also ushered in an unprecedented period of development. In the whole chemical fiber industry chain, the development pace of PX is relatively lagging behind. Statistics show that China's PX production capacity was 8.26 million tons in 2011, the same as that in 2010. Although the production capacity increased to 10.36 million tons in 2012, due to various constraints, the new production capacity has not been effectively put into operation until 2013. Among them, the PX production capacity of 1.5 million tons of Zhangzhou Tenglong aromatics has been delayed repeatedly, and the prospect of the newly added 100000 tons of PX unit of Ningbo Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. is not optimistic due to environmental protests

compared with Px, its downstream PTA capacity grew faster, especially in the second half of 2012. By the end of 2012, the new production capacity was 11.4 million tons, and the capacity stock reached 31.46 million tons, with a growth rate of 56.83%. Domestic PTA capacity has changed from the basic balance between supply and demand in the previous two years to a serious overcapacity

it is precisely because of the mismatch between PX and PTA capacity supply that the profits of the industrial chain are concentrated in PX, while PTA production is in a state of loss for a long time. In 2013, PTA production profit improved due to the sluggish PX price. PX prices weakened during the year mainly due to the following two reasons: first, domestic PTA manufacturers reduced PX demand by limiting production, while stabilizing PTA prices; In addition, domestic PTA production enterprises have a large PX inventory, and many enterprises lower the PX price by selling, thus taking the lead in the monthly PX price negotiation. The PX Asian contract price from the beginning of the year to June is set at $1400

although PTA production enterprises can moderately stabilize the market price by reducing the start-up and increase the profit space. However, due to the huge scale of PTA actual stock capacity, the current 32 million tons of PTA capacity will consume 20.96 million tons of raw material Px, while the domestic PX capacity is only about 10million tons. Considering that PX project is limited by many factors such as investment cycle, technology, administrative threshold, environmental protection requirements, etc., PTA production enterprises' short-term production restriction operation is difficult to shake the pattern of PX supply exceeding demand, and it is also difficult to form a long-term pressure on PX price

in the medium and long term, the PX capacity in Asia will reach 39.03 million tons by 2015, including 14.5 million tons in China. The PX capacity in Asia can produce 59.68 million tons of PTA, but the PTA capacity in Asia has reached about 60million tons by the end of 2012. Therefore, even if PTA capacity will not increase significantly in the future, px-pta will not enter the balance state of stock capacity until 2015

although the State Council released some approval rights on PX production during the year, it was limited to the approval of reconstruction and expansion projects. Whether the PX project can be successfully put into operation in the future depends on the factors of low cost, environmental protection and effective communication with the public

overall, the sluggish PX price is a short-term phenomenon, and the difference between PX and naphtha oil prices in Asia fell from $697 to $617. Although the price difference narrowed, it still made huge profits relative to the downstream. The second half of the year is the peak season for PTA, and terminal consumption is significantly stronger than that in the first half of the year, so the PX market is expected to return to strength and gradually rise

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